JPMorgan Adjusts Bitcoin Miner Models for 2024
JPMorgan Revises Bitcoin Miner Models
JPMorgan has updated its bitcoin miner models and price targets based on first-quarter 2024 results, revised hashrate targets, and modest changes in bitcoin prices. The bank has taken a more conservative stance on the expected post-halving bitcoin rally, leading to lower December 2024 price targets.
Adjusted Bitcoin Price Projections
Initially, JPMorgan anticipated a 30% increase in bitcoin prices following the halving. However, this has been revised to a 15% increase, suggesting that a portion of the rally may have already occurred. Despite this conservative outlook, bitcoin has seen a 56% increase year-to-date.
Bitcoin's Market Dynamics
At current price levels, the notional value of the remaining bitcoin stands at approximately $91 billion. This represents a 4% decrease from earlier figures in April, but a substantial 109% increase year-over-year. The four-year block reward revenue opportunity is evaluated at $47 billion, with market caps of U.S.-listed miners positioned ahead of historical averages.
Miner Performance and Targets
Iris Energy (IREN) plans to achieve 30 EH/s by the end of 2024, surpassing its previous target of 20 EH/s. This anticipated growth has prompted JPMorgan to raise its December 2024 price target for IREN to $11. The company is recognized for its reliable infrastructure and hashrate delivery.
Network Assumptions and Valuation
There have been no significant changes in bitcoin pricing or network hashrate since April 2024. The spot bitcoin price assumption has slightly increased to $69,000, while the network hashrate remains at 600 EH/s. JPMorgan's estimates for target gross profit per EH/s have decreased, particularly for miners with less favorable bitcoin price assumptions.
Future Growth and Market Position
Over the next 18 months, miner growth depends on strategic acquisitions and large purchase orders. Iris Energy has notably outperformed its peers, while Riot Blockchain (RIOT) has seen less favorable performance. The report projects significant upside potential for both IREN and RIOT, with IREN benefiting from improved fleet efficiency.
What is Coinefficiency?
Coinefficiency is your go-to platform for optimizing cryptocurrency trading, investments and strategies. We provide a comprehensive suite of tools to analyze market trends, monitor price movements, and execute effective trading strategies. Whether you're a seasoned trader or new to crypto, Coinefficiency helps you maximize your profits with data-driven insights.
Why Use Coinefficiency?
- Advanced market analytics to identify trading opportunities.
- Compare markets relative performance.
- Understand market cycles over time. See market levels.
- Compare buy-and-hold, portfolio rebalancing, Dollar-Cost-Averaging trading strategies.
With Coinefficiency, you can stay ahead of the market and execute efficient trading strategies effortlessly.
Get Started with Coinefficiency
Ready to optimize your crypto investments? Take control of your portfolio with cutting-edge tools designed for both beginners and experts.